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Emerging Europe in 2024

Pivotal elections, Poland emboldened, and battlefield stalemate in Ukraine

January 1, 2024

7 min read

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January 1, 2024

By

7 min read

What does 2024 hold for the emerging Europe region? We’ve put together a handy primer. 

While 2024 is unquestionably a year of immense potential for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), it remains to be seen if the region will be able to fully grasp the opportunities with which it has been presented.

From Russia’s war on Ukraine to key regional (and global) elections, much will depend on the region’s ability to adjust to several significant trends that are set to shape its socio-economic landscape.  

A Ukrainian soldier holds the line near Kharkiv. Will Kyiv be given the support it needs to make a decisive breakthrough in 2024?

Politics 

The direction of travel in Ukraine is arguably moving in Russia’s favour. Unable to make a decisive breakthrough with its much-heralded counteroffensive in the summer and autumn of 2023, Ukraine has in recent months had to fight two wars: against renewed, sporadic Russian attacks at home and against fading support from some key international allies.  

There are signs that the war is heading for a stalemate, which carries the danger of Kyiv being pressured into negotiating a rotten peace deal. The failure is not Ukraine’s—from the very beginning of the war it has been provided with enough arms and ammunition merely to defend itself (and at times event that support has been wanting) and never enough to go on the all-out offensive.  

The arrival of the US Ground-Launched Small-Diameter Bomb (GLSDB) in early 2024 should replenish Ukraine’s arsenal of longer-range missiles, while it will also, finally, receive F-16 jets at some stage in 2024. These alone, however, may not be enough to turn the tide of the war decisively in Ukraine’s favour. It will need more support. It’s time for Kyiv’s allies—notably the US and EU—to decide once and for all if they truly want a Ukrainian victory. 

Poland’s new prime minister, Donald Tusk, has big plans for 2024. After eight years of government by the Law and Justice party (PiS), which often brought Warsaw into direct conflict with Brussels, Tusk—a former president of the European Council—wants to place Poland firmly at the heart of Europe.  

After a great deal of often empty talk in recent years about Europe’s shifting centre of gravity (especially since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022), the east of the continent now has a leader who wants to make such a significant shift a reality. 

No fewer than 10 countries in the emerging Europe region will head to the polls in 2024, while the region’s 11 EU members will also vote in European Parliamentary elections. Should the outcome of the European elections (which will take place in May) embolden the bloc’s Russia-friendly populists, it could further impact support for Ukraine.  

Populist parties—if elected in sufficient numbers—will attempt to place extremists on the new European Commission, potentially threatening the current EU consensus. Equally important for Ukraine (and the region as a whole) will be the vital presidential election in the United States, where a victory for Donald Trump is likely to be bad news for emerging Europe, given his campaign promises to disengage from Europe and from NATO.  

Croatia, Georgia, Lithuania, Moldova, North Macedonia and Romania will all be voting in both parliamentary and presidential elections; Slovaks will choose a new president; Bosnians and Poles vote in local elections. Belarus, an authoritarian regime, will—for what’s worth—elect a new parliament.  

Will Estonian PM Kaja Kallas be NATO’s next secretary-general?

Security 

An election of a different kind, made in a committee room behind closed doors, is likely to decide the name of the new NATO secretary-general at some stage in 2024. Incumbent Jens Stoltenberg will finally step down as the alliance’s boss in September (having twice seen his time in office extended as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine) and his successor will need to be chosen several months in advance.  

Among the frontrunners is Estonia’s prime minister, Kaja Kallas. NATO is thought to want its next secretary-general to come from a newer, eastern member state, to be tough on Russia, and preferably female. Kallas fits the bill, as does another Estonian, former president Kersti Kaljulaid.  

In an interview in November, however, Kallas played down her chances, joking that while the next NATO boss should indeed be female and from a frontline member state that spends the requisite two per cent of GDP on defence, NATO will probably offer the job to Dutch PM Mark Rutte. 

(In not unrelated news, the current NATO number two, Mircea Geoană, is the favourite to win Romania’s presidential election in November, although he has yet to officially declare his candidacy). 

The region must address gauge incompatibility issues on the Poland-Ukraine border to boost trade

Economy & Business 

Emerging Europe is likely to speed up its digital transformation in 2023, emboldened by the EU Chips Act, which has already reaped dividends for Poland, set to host two enormous semiconductor plants, and the new AI Act.  

This transformation includes the continued adoption of new technologies in traditional industries, the growth of e-commerce, and the expansion of the IT sector, which has been a significant growth area for countries such as Estonia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, and—despite the war—Ukraine. 

Energy security will meanwhile remain a top priority for CEE countries, especially in light of the Ukraine conflict and the challenges of meeting the targets set by the EU’s Green Deal. The region will likely accelerate its transition towards renewable energy sources and seek to diversify its energy imports to reduce dependence on Russian gas. 

The region will also continue to face demographic challenges, including aging populations and emigration. In response, expect more countries to follow Romania’s lead and implement policies to attract migrants, encourage higher birth rates, or incentivise citizens working abroad to return home. 

With the help of EU funds—both for current and would-be members—CEE countries will spend heavily in 2024 on infrastructure, including transportation networks and digital infrastructure, to better integrate the region and stimulate economic growth. Priority should be given to perhaps the biggest current issue face the region’s connectivity, the problem of different railway gauges on the Poland Ukraine border.  

Enhanced regional cooperation is likely to be a trend as CEE countries work together to address common challenges such as border security, energy independence, and economic development. Initiatives like the Three Seas Initiative may gain more prominence as platforms for collaboration, particularly in light of the waning influence of China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the 17+1 format. 

Tartu will be a European Capital of Culture in 2024

Culture & Sport 

Tartu in Estonia will be one of three European Capitals of Culture in 2024 (the others are Bad Ischl in Austria and Bodø in Norway). The event’s organisers have promised to take the opportunity to promote not just in Tartu (Estonia’s second largest city) but the whole of southern Estonia, making it a truly regional celebration of culture. The official opening ceremony takes place on January 26. 

The Eurovision Song Contest (this year set to be held in Sweden) will once again take place without several countries from emerging Europe. Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Slovakia have all confirmed that they will not be participating, citing the rising costs of doing so. Belarus will also be absent, due to sanctions, while Hungary—absent since 2020—is highly unlikely to re-enter the competition this year. 

Hungary will, however, be at Euro 2024, the European football championships, hosted by Germany in June and July. Indeed, its dynamic young team might be a decent each-way bet. Other countries from the region taking part in the 24-team tournament include Albania, Croatia, Czechia, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, and Slovenia (playing in a major international tournament for the first since the 2010 World Cup). 

The line-up may also include Bosnia and Herzegovina, Estonia, Georgia, Kosovo, Poland, and Ukraine, who all face a series of play-offs to decide the final four qualifiers in March. 

Finally, the region will also host several major sporting events in 2024.  

Serbia is the venue for the World Athletics Cross-Country Championships in March, while in May, Czechia will host the World Ice Hockey Championships, with matches set to be played in the Prague and Ostrava. Also in May, Hungary’s capital Budapest hosts the Rhythmic Gymnastics European Championships, as well as its legendary F1 Grand Prix in July.  

Then, in December, the world’s best swimmers will be in Budapest for the World Short Course Swimming Championships. 

Craig Turp-Balazs

Craig Turp-Balazs

Craig Turp-Balazs is head of insight and analysis at Reinvantage.

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1. The Client

A global technology company operating across EMEA, with a regional HQ in Istanbul. The company manages 20+ markets, handling everything from brand campaigns to strategic partnerships.

Role we worked with: The EMEA Head of Marketing (supported by two regional managers).

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Despite strong products and a respected global brand, the regional team was struggling with:

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Traditional fixes (more meetings, more reporting) only created more noise.

3. The Sprint

We ran a 10-day Remote Reinvention Sprint with the regional HQ team.

  • Day 1–3: Intake → Reviewed decks, campaign data, and plans.
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    • 40% of spend was going into low-potential markets.
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4. The Breakthrough

The Sprint uncovered that the issue wasn’t budget, but fragmentation.
Three sharp insights unlocked a way forward:

  1. Unified KPIs bridging marketing + sales.
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By just realigning resources and focus, the client could unlock an estimated £250,000 in efficiency gains within the next 12 months — far exceeding the Sprint’s value guarantee. The path to higher returns was already inside the business, hidden by misalignment.
5. From Sprint to Action (4 Pillars Applied)

With clarity secured, Reinvantage didn’t suggest “more projects.”

Instead, we used the Sprint findings to create laser-focused next steps — drawing only from the areas that would deliver the most impact:

  • Readiness → Alignment workshops for sales + marketing teams. New playbooks clarified “qualified lead” definitions and reduced internal disputes.
  • Foresight → A market-opportunity scan identified which 5 countries would deliver the highest ROI, removing the guesswork from allocation.
  • Growth → Guided the reallocation of €2M budget and designed a phased rollout strategy that protected risk while maximising return.
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Because the Sprint had stripped away noise, these actions weren’t generic consulting ideas — they were directly tied to the breakthroughs.

6. The Results
  • +28% increase in qualified leads across the region.
  • 30% faster campaign rollout due to streamlined approvals.
  • Budget efficiency gains → €2M redirected from low-return to high-potential markets.
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The client came in believing they needed more budget.
The Sprint revealed that what they really needed was clarity and alignment.

With that clarity, the four pillars became not theory, but practical tools to deliver measurable impact.

The Sprint guaranteed at least £20,000 in value — but in this case, it helped unlock more than 10x that within six months.
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1. The Client

A regional venture capital fund and accelerator focused on early-stage tech start-ups in the Baltics and Central Europe.

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Key issues:

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The leadership team knew something was off, but disagreed on whether the issue was pipeline quality, market conditions, or internal capacity.

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We ran a 10-day Remote Reinvention Sprint with the partners and portfolio team.

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The Sprint revealed that the challenge wasn’t pipeline quality — it was lack of focus and positioning.

Three core insights provided the turning point:

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These shifts alone gave the fund a path to add an estimated £2M+ in portfolio value over the following 18 months, by concentrating capital and resources where they could move the needle most.
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With clarity from the Sprint, Reinvantage created a tailored support plan:

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The client thought the problem was pipeline quality.
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By applying the four pillars, Reinvantage helped turn scattered effort into concentrated value creation.

The Sprint guaranteed at least £20,000 in value; here it set the stage for multi-million-pound upside in portfolio growth.
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1. The Client

A large international impact organisation focused on entrepreneurship and economic empowerment.
The organisation runs multi-country programmes across Eastern Europe and Central Asia, often in partnership with global donors and corporate sponsors.

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The organisation had launched a flagship regional initiative supporting women entrepreneurs, but the programme was underperforming.

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We ran a 10-day Remote Reinvention Sprint with the regional leadership team and representatives from two country offices.

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Three critical insights reshaped the path forward:

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By eliminating duplicated reporting and clarifying what success looks like, the client saw they could save the equivalent of £100,000 in staff time annually — while also unlocking stronger donor confidence and follow-on funding opportunities.
5. From Sprint to Action (4 Pillars Applied)

Armed with Sprint clarity, Reinvantage proposed a laser-focused support plan:

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Role we worked with: Director of Digital Transformation, supported by IT and service delivery leads from three ministries.

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The agency wanted to accelerate momentum but struggled to get alignment across ministries.

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5. From Sprint to Action (4 Pillars Applied)

Based on the Sprint clarity, Reinvantage proposed a modest, targeted package of support:

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6. The Results
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  • Donor confidence improved → short-term impact report received positive feedback.
The client thought it needed more funding and bigger projects.
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By applying the four pillars to a targeted scope, Reinvantage helped deliver visible results within a single quarter — proving progress to citizens and donors and laying the groundwork for deeper transformation.