Europe’s liberalising project is under threat from both Russian military aggression and US hostility. Fortunately, it seems the EU’s High Representative, Kaja Kallas, understands this new geopolitical landscape and is shoring up the bloc’s power and influence on its eastern front with Ukraine crucial to building a drone wall against Russia’s hybrid warfare.
But what of the EU’s strategically important southeastern neighbourhood?
Kallas’s decision to visit Azerbaijan earlier this year, but not neighbouring Armenia, drew furious criticism but this was not intended at a slight against Armenian sensibilities. Instead, it simply acknowledged the hard-nosed geopolitical requirements of today’s Cold War and US withdrawal from leadership of the democratic world.
Kallas praised Baku for its support for the EU’s energy security. Azerbaijan and Norway have stepped in to supplant Russian energy which dominated European supplies until the beginning of the 2022 full-scale war. Trump in turn seeks to replace Russian with US LNG supplies.
Willing, but waiting
The EU is supporting as best it can Armenia’s desire to leave Russia’s sphere of influence. But it takes two to tango— Armenia cannot join Ukraine and Moldova in the queue to join the EU until it leaves Vladimir Putin’s pet project, the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), the Russian-led five-nation copycat economic and customs union.
The EU has long prided itself in being a supporter of democracy and liberal values, but this must be reconciled against hard-nosed geopolitics. The EU has clearly had no luck in Belarus which has been ruled by an authoritarian regime for three decades, Serbia and Georgia are backsliding into authoritarianism and Russia’s orbit, while Türkiye has long ago given up on achieving EU membership. Only Ukraine and Moldova have EU candidate status, with possibly Armenia joining the queue.
The Trump route
The EU should build on August’s peace agreement by investing in, and taking a more direct involvement in, the Zangezur Corridor, or as it has been renamed in the White House, the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP). TRIPP traverses the Armenian province of Syunik for 43 kilometres from the Azerbaijani city of Agbend to the Azerbaijani province of Nakhichevan.
The US is to sublease land to a consortium for infrastructure development and management. Nine companies, three of which are American, have expressed an interest in developing infrastructure on the TRIPP.
TRIPP will expand rail, communications, oil and gas pipelines, and digital infrastructure for the region as a whole. Armenia and Azerbaijan ‘stand to be liberated geopolitically from effective control by Russia’. Instead of a South-North direction, trade, energy and links will increasingly be based on an east-west axis from Central Asia through the South Caucasus to Türkiye and Europe, reviving the old Silk Road.
Out with the old
Greater US influence in the South Caucasus comes at the expense of Russia and Iran. Russia’s influence was in decline after Armenia, its long-term loyal ally, was defeated in the Second Karabakh War in 2020. Azerbaijan managed to persuade Armenia to agree to close the Minsk OSCE Group which had long ago lost its purpose, which further reduced the influence of Russia.
Since the Second Karabakh War, Russia’s ally in Syria—Bashar al-Assad—has been overthrown, Iran’s network of proxies has been destroyed, and Iran has become severely weakened after Israeli and US attacks on its military. Iran, a regime with deeply entrenched anti-Americanism, is weary at the growth of US influence in the South Caucasus because it can no longer play the role of regional power broker. In fact, it was inevitable that Armenia’s pivot away from Russia towards Europe and its peace agreement with Azerbaijan would mean the end of Iranian influence even before TRIPP was signed.
US involvement was crucial in convincing Armenia to moderate its stance on the Zangezur Corridor. Armenia had become distrustful of Russia after Yerevan felt ‘betrayed’ by Russian passivity in its 2020 and 2023 wars with Azerbaijan. Nevertheless, Armenia will have to leave the Collective Treaty Organization (CSTO)—the Russian dominated six-nation copycat version of NATO—as TRIPP is installed to prevent a Russian-US clash on the ground.
Dividends all round
For Azerbaijan the benefits are multifaceted. Travelling from Azerbaijan to Nakhichevan will no longer be mainly by the costly air route. Azerbaijan will become a transportation hub.
TRIPP will assist in economically developing the poor regions of south-west Azerbaijan, Armenian province of Syunik and eastern Türkiye.
For China, TRIPP means rethinking the Belt and Road Initiative, or fundamentally redesigning it to fit the new realities. TRIPP creates a Middle Corridor from China-Central Asia-South-Caucasus-Türkiye-Europe.
For Central Asian states the befits are three-fold. Firstly, integration of the Turkic world. Secondly, increased trade to Europe that bypasses Russia. Thirdly, greater manoeuvrability and autonomy from China.
Balance of power
Both countries—Azerbaijan and Armenia—are deserving of the EU’s attention and investment. They have succeeded in resolving the most intractable and bloody conflict that shook the disintegrating Soviet Union. Today, the EU should build on the normalisation of their relations which will play a positive influence on neighbouring Georgia and Iran. In the case of Armenia, this would support its drive to rejoin Europe and in the case of Azerbaijan, strengthen its leading position in the Turkic and Non-Aligned worlds.
Armenia and Azerbaijan both seek greater European support and involvement in the South Caucasus.
The pro-Western leaders of Armenia led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan wish to one day join the EU. Azerbaijan has never expressed this intention but has shown its independence from Russia by not joining the EAEU and CSTO while maintaining an independent, pro-Western foreign policy. It has built its economy in partnership with its largest foreign investor, the UK, to become a reliable supplier of energy to its largest customer, the EU.
However, the EU needs to be more balanced in its treatment of Armenia and Azerbaijan. The EU’s monitoring mission along Armenia’s border infuriated the Azerbaijanis and with the signing of a peace agreement is now (together with the Minsk OSCE Group) de facto defunct.
Putin’s illegal full-scale invasion of Ukraine changed Europe’s geopolitical neighbourhood. Many countries and intergovernmental organisations began to support their extrication from energy dependency on Russia. The EU needs reliable supplies of alternative energy and multi-decade engagement with reliable international partners in the South Caucasus such as Azerbaijan and Armenia. Hopefully, Georgia will soon join them.
Photo: Dreamstime.
