Armenia’s strategic geopolitical position has historically rendered it vulnerable to external pressures and multifaceted challenges.
Since gaining independence in 1991, Armenia has faced an array of challenges, ranging from regional armed conflicts to territorial seizures and ethnic cleansings. These traditional threats have evolved into more sophisticated forms of aggression, typified by hybrid tactics that exploit the vulnerabilities of modern democracies.
Unlike conventional warfare, hybrid warfare operates in the gray zone between peace and conflict, blurring the lines between military and non-military domains while targeting critical infrastructure, state and non-state institutions, national identity, societal cohesion, and more.
Hybrid warfare’s ascendance in the 21st century is intrinsically tied to advancements in technology, globalisation, and the interconnected nature of contemporary societies. Armenia, situated at the crossroads of competing geopolitical interests, has become a testing ground for such tactics.
Historical examples, such as the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, underscore the transformative nature of threats facing the nation—shifting from direct military confrontations to covert, strategic, and multi-domain operations. This shift necessitates a paradigm change in Armenia’s national security strategies, emphasising proactive measures and resilience-building.
Current hybrid threats against Armenia’s state and non-state institutions
Hybrid threats targeting Armenia encompass both non-state actors such as civil society organisations, media outlets, even diaspora communities, as well as state institutions.
These threats are intricately designed to erode the resilience of both state and non-state entities, exploiting vulnerabilities to destroy the country from within. Adversarial states employ a range of tactics, including disinformation campaigns, cyberattacks, economic coercion, psychological operations, etc., to infiltrate and manipulate all spheres of influence.
The strategic objective is to “deprive Armenia of its ability to develop effective policies based on long-term, strategic planning aligned with resilience and national interests,” according to an in-depth interview with Dr Armine Margaryan, the Chair and Founder of the Yerevan-based Women & Global Security Architecture think tank.
These malign tactics aim to “weaken Armenians’ resolve to resist to challenges”, as well as to fragment national unity, undermine trust in institutions, and compromise Armenia’s ability to maintain its sovereignty and security.
State institutions face particular challenges as hybrid threats target critical sectors such as political decision-making, law enforcement, and national security frameworks. Hybrid tactics tend to blur traditional boundaries between military and non-military domains, forcing Armenia to do painful concessions without any guarantees of peace.
Non-state institutions, similarly, are also vulnerable to manipulation. Civil society organisations, media outlets, and diaspora communities are targeted through funding of questionable NGOs and the recruitment of influential individuals to propagate adversarial narratives. These tactics aim to sow divisions, weaken grassroots movements, and undermine democratic processes. To counter these threats, Armenia must implement comprehensive resilience-building strategies that address both state and non-state institutions.
This would include developing robust cybersecurity frameworks, promoting transparency in institutional funding, fostering media literacy, and enhancing an effective collaboration between state and non-state actors to counteract divisive influences.
Cyberattacks and the digital battlefield
Cyberattacks are one of the cornerstones of hybrid warfare strategies targeting Armenia. These operations are highly diverse, encompassing attacks on governmental databases, communication networks, critical infrastructure, and financial systems.
The goal of such operations is twofold: disrupting essential services and eroding public trust in state institutions. As mentioned by one of the prominent Armenian experts in cybersecurity Samvel Martirosyan, aka, Kornelij, “Although some strategic steps have been taken in recent years and some security standards have been introduced, the protection systems of most structures remain ineffective.”
New forms of cyberthreats have been detected “including phishing campaigns, web defacement, DDoS attacks, and data leaks.”
Armenia’s experience with coordinated cyberattacks has been particularly pronounced during periods of heightened regional tensions, such as during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, when Azerbaijani hacker communities and channels published breached data and documents from key Armenian government institutions (MFA, MoD, etc.) and electronic systems, including the Mulberry Groupware system used for internal government communication, screenshots of breached government websites, databases, and footage from high-resolution surveillance cameras installed in Yerevan.
The published data included official documents from the Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant, which the spokesperson for the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defence had threatened to target.
The implications of these attacks are profound, highlighting the necessity for robust cybersecurity measures. Armenia’s existing cybersecurity infrastructure, while improving, faces critical gaps in terms of advanced threat detection, incident response, and strategic deterrence capabilities.
This year has been notable due to a significant increase in both the number and quality of reported and unreported digital fraud cases. Additionally, targeted attacks have become more frequent, often involving groups sponsored or controlled by state actors.
In recent years, “Cases of Pegasus spyware use in Armenia have mainly been directed against politicians, journalists, and activists. The goal of these operations was to monitor their activities and collect information. The Azerbaijani special services sought to collect multi-faceted and comprehensive information from almost all sectors of Armenia, including secret domains. And this has lasted at least since the 2020 war and continues to this day,” says Martirosyan.
Moreover, several hacker groups affiliated with the Kremlin and Baku have begun targeting Armenia. In January 2024, Anonymous Russia conducted DDoS attacks on Armenian government websites, banks, and telecommunications companies. Following this, in March 2024, Anonymous Sudan—still associated with Russia—claimed responsibility for an attack on the Armenian mobile operator Team Telecom.
Disinformation campaigns, psychological operations (PsyOps), and strategic narratives
Disinformation campaigns represent another potent tool in the hybrid warfare arsenal employed against Armenia. Through social media platforms, foe states disseminate false narratives designed to polarise Armenian society and delegitimise its national interests.
These campaigns often exploit preexisting societal divisions—such as urban-rural disparities, ethnic tensions, or political factionalism and institutional vulnerabilities—to amplify discord and weaken national solidarity.
Disinformation campaigns are closely complemented by PsyOps aimed at manipulating public perception and undermining societal cohesion. These efforts involve the strategic use of propaganda, selective leaks of information, and fear-mongering to create confusion, mistrust, and despondency among the population.
Through the dissemination of fake narratives, these campaigns flood social media with revised reports of historical events, and identity related information. By exploiting societal vulnerabilities, these efforts erode trust in Armenia’s democratic institutions, creating internal divisions and making the nation increasingly susceptible to external manipulation and destabilisation.
Strategic narratives play a pivotal role in shaping public opinion and influencing perceptions in hybrid warfare.
These narratives are carefully crafted to frame the actions and intentions of adversarial states in a favorable light while casting doubt on Armenia’s policies, history, and legitimacy. By leveraging cultural symbols, historical reinterpretations, and emotional appeals, these narratives aim to undermine Armenia’s national identity and its citizens’ sense of purpose and resilience.
Cognitive warfare against Armenia by Azerbaijan and Russia
Cognitive warfare, as a powerful dimension of hybrid warfare, represents a potent approach that seeks to influence, disrupt, and control an adversary’s thoughts, emotions, and decisions without necessarily employing physical force, and aiming to erode societal cohesion and stability.
“Actions of hostile countries using the methods of ontological, cultural, cognitive and psychological warfare, as well as influence operations lead to the corrosion of the national identity of post-Soviet Armenia,” says Dr Hrachya Arzumanian, a prominent Armenian security expert.
These methods “complement the existential military threats in traditional domains of war, and one should not underestimate those threats to the national security of Armenia.”
Azerbaijan and Russia have actively employed cognitive warfare tactics against Armenia, exploiting historical grievances, national narratives, and collective memory to sow division within Armenian society.
Through a combination of propaganda, disinformation, and the manipulation of historical events, these nations aim to create confusion, distrust, and discord among Armenians, weakening national identity and cohesion.
Azerbaijan, in particular, has focused on constructing and disseminating narratives that delegitimise Armenia’s historical and territorial claims, particularly regarding Nagorno-Karabakh, and Armenians’ historical and civilisational identity.
By promoting false narratives that distort and/or revise the history of the region, Azerbaijan seeks to delegitimise Armenia’s presence and rights, fostering resentment and division within the Armenian population.
Similarly, Russia has utilised a range of cognitive tactics, such as exploiting cultural and political divides, to exacerbate internal conflicts and reduce Armenia’s ability to find security alternatives and resist external pressures.
Economic manipulation and resource dependencies
Economic coercion is a formidable component of hybrid warfare strategies. In case of Armenia, Turkey and Azerbaijan employ economic blockades since 1993, while Russia abuses Armenia’s energy and other dependencies to exert pressure on Armenia’s economy.
These and other tools aim to destabilise markets, strain public resources, and create or increase socio-economic vulnerabilities. Additionally, the strategic acquisition of assets in key sectors by Russia lead to long-term dependencies that undermine Armenia’s economic sovereignty.
The implications of economic manipulation extend beyond immediate disruptions. They often aim to achieve broader geopolitical objectives, such as influencing Armenia’s foreign policy decisions or exacerbating internal divisions.
To counter these challenges, Armenia must diversify its economic partnerships, reduce dependencies on adversarial states, create more interdependencies, and prioritise investments in domestic industries. The development of a resilient and self-sufficient economic framework is crucial to mitigating the impact of hybrid economic tactics.
The role of international collaboration
Addressing hybrid threats requires a coordinated international response. Armenia has actively engaged with global institutions to share best practices, access funding for resilience initiatives, and participate in joint cybersecurity exercises.
Collaborations with organisations such as NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence, the European Union Agency for Cybersecurity (ENISA), and the European Union’s StratCom Task Force could help Armenia enhance its defensive capabilities.
However, international collaboration must extend beyond technical support. Armenia should advocate for the inclusion of hybrid threat resilience in broader regional and international security agendas.
By positioning itself as a proactive contributor to global security, Armenia can strengthen its alliances and enhance its capacity to counter hybrid threats.
Armenia’s response and resilience strategies
Recognising the multifaceted nature of hybrid threats, Armenia should start implementing adaptive and integrative resilience strategies.
These efforts will encompass a broad range of initiatives, including enhancing cyber defence capabilities, fostering media literacy, strengthening regional alliances, and developing comprehensive national security frameworks. However, more must be done to address the evolving nature of hybrid threats.
A key component of Armenia’s resilience strategy is the cultivation of societal awareness. Public awareness campaigns that educate citizens about the tactics employed by adversaries can significantly enhance societal vigilance. Moreover, fostering a culture of critical thinking and informed decision-making can empower citizens to resist manipulation and maintain national cohesion.
At the institutional level, Armenia must prioritise the establishment of a dedicated centre for hybrid threat analysis and response. Such a centre could serve as a hub for research, policy development, and coordination of counter-hybrid measures.
By leveraging expertise from academia, government, and civil society, this centre can provide actionable insights and enhance Armenia’s preparedness against hybrid threats.
A call to action
Strategic hybridity represents a profound challenge to Armenia’s sovereignty, sustainability, and stability. By weaponizing everything and exploiting vulnerabilities across multiple domains, hostile states aim to weaken Armenia from within.
Countering hybrid warfare methods requires the deployment of a national system of comprehensive defensc and security, built on the basis of a whole-of-nation, whole-of-government approach.
Armenia must heavily invest in education, media literacy, and public awareness to build a society capable of discerning and resisting manipulative narratives.
More efforts are needed to enhance the state system of governance based on effective strategic and security thinking. Collaborative efforts with the diaspora can amplify Armenia’s capacity to respond to external pressures while fostering unity and purpose.
Furthermore, Armenia’s success in navigating hybrid warfare depends on its ability to integrate technological innovation with strategic foresight. Policymakers must prioritise investments in strengthening national resilience, effective governance, technological innovation, cybersecurity, economic diversification, international cooperation, strategic communication, diplomacy, training and education.
While the stakes are undeniably high, Armenia’s rich history of resilience and determination serves as a foundation for overcoming these challenges.
By mobilising its resources, forging alliances, and empowering its citizens, Armenia can not only defend its sovereignty but also emerge as a model of resilience in the region.
The path forward demands unwavering resolve, strategic clarity, and collective action to safeguard Armenia’s future against the covert and overt pressures of hybrid warfare from malign states.
Photo by Tigran Kharatyan on Unsplash.
