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The free bus problem

Making public transport free rarely gets drivers out of their cars

February 3, 2026

6 min read

February 3, 2026

6 min read

Photo: Dreamstime.

From April, commuters in the delightful Transylvanian city of Braşov will be able travel for free on public transport (on Fridays, at least). The city revealed the plan last month, calling it ‘Green Friday’, granting free travel on all buses and trolleybuses across the metropolitan area. George Cornea, president of the Braşov Transport Association, hopes neighbouring municipalities will follow suit. 

The Braşov scheme is the latest experiment in a global question that continues to offer confused, mixed answers for urban planners: Does eliminating fares persuade motorists onto public transport?

Luxembourg became the first country to abolish fares entirely in February 2020, extending free travel across its buses, trams and trains to residents and tourists alike. With 696 cars per 1,000 people (the highest vehicle density in Europe), the Grand Duchy had ample reason to act. Six years on, congestion remains at pre-pandemic levels or worse. Data from Eurostat shows more than 75 per cent of all journeys are still made by car.

Tallinn, the Estonian capital, was the first major European city to trial free public transport, back in 2013. It made buses, trams and trolleybuses free for registered residents after a referendum in which 75 per cent of residents voted in favour of the move. 

Mixed results, to say the least

The initial results were promising, given that public transport usage jumped 14 per cent within a year, and low-income households reported improved mobility. Grigori Parfjonov of the Tallinn Transport Department told researchers ridership continued climbing at roughly one per cent annually. 

In the longer term, however, public transport’s share of total trips fell over the next decade from over 40 per cent to under 30 per cent, according to government figures, while commuters driving to work rose from 40 per cent to 50 per cent. Even among those in the bottom income quartile, transit use plummeted from over 60 per cent to around 35 per cent.

What happened? Mari Jussi, a sustainable mobility adviser to the Estonian Transport Administration, points to a familiar culprit: driving remains too easy and too cheap.

A 2016 study of Tallinn revealed another problem, that walking trips dropped by 40 per cent after fares disappeared. People who had previously strolled to the shops now hopped on a bus instead. Car usage fell just five per cent. Researchers at the Technical University of Munich found similar patterns with Germany’s Deutschlandticket, introduced in 2022 to get the country moving again after Covid-19, and which offers unlimited monthly travel on regional and local transport for 63 euros. Though millions of people use the tickets, only one-fifth of new ticket holders reduced their car use. Most gains came at the expense of cyclists and pedestrians.

A different kind of evacuation

More optimistic findings come from Dunkirk, the French port city forever associated with wartime evacuation. Since introducing free buses in 2018, ridership has increased by an average of 85 per cent. A 2019 study by the Observatory of Free Transport Cities found roughly half of new riders were making journeys previously taken by car; city hall figures suggest use of parking lots dropped 30 per cent. Maxime Huré, a lecturer in political science at the University of Perpignan who has studied the scheme extensively, notes it has “revitalised the city” and functions as “a kind of social redistribution”.

Dunkirk paired free fares with substantial service improvements, such as buses running every ten minutes on major routes, while keeping the network compact enough to serve the needs of most residents. Contrast this with Luxembourg, where cross-border commuters (some 200,000 daily) still pay for transport in France, Germany or Belgium before reaching the free zone, rather defeating the purpose.

Scotland has taken a different tack: targeted rather than universal free travel. Since January 2022, anyone under 22 living in Scotland can travel free on buses with a National Entitlement Card. More than 100 million journeys have been logged, and an evaluation published in 2023 found 34 per cent of cardholders had accessed new opportunities such as jobs, education, and social activities they otherwise could not have reached. The scheme costs the taxpayer but attacks a specific problem: transport poverty among young people. It notably makes no pretense of emptying roads.

Free is no substitute for decent services

A report published in September 2025 by France’s Court of Auditors examined free transport across multiple cities. Its conclusions were blunt. In smaller places with underused networks, scrapping fares increased ridership at limited cost. In larger cities with busy systems, the policy proved “very costly” thanks to lost revenue and the need to expand services to cope with demand. In Montpellier, which made travel free for residents in late 2023, as in Tallinn, most new trips came at the expense of walking and cycling rather than driving.

Lyon meanwhile did something different. Rather than abolishing fares, the city raised them to 90 euros per month and used the extra revenue to finance more services, better coverage and improved reliability. Car traffic fell.

Price, it seems, matters far less than convenience, reliability and speed. A 2021 study in Bonn found subsidised 365 euros annual passes succeeded in shifting some commuters from cars, but only when combined with better routes serving congested corridors. Research by Odo Cats at KTH Royal Institute of Technology in Stockholm concludes that since fare elasticity is lower than the cross-elasticity to petrol prices, making driving more expensive delivers bigger modal shifts than making transit cheaper.

Braşov’s Friday experiment, then, may achieve something modest. Free travel one day a week is hardly a transformation, but it costs little to test whether Romanians respond. Extending it further would require harder questions. Are services frequent enough? Do routes serve the places people actually want to go? Is parking still cheap?

Making public transport free is politically appealing, given that few people object to a freebie. It carries genuine social benefits for the elderly, students, and those on low incomes. But as a cure for congestion, the evidence suggests it is largely snake oil. Cities genuinely hoping to get motorists out from behind their steering wheels might do better investing in faster, more reliable services, restricting parking and heretical charging accordingly. Luxembourg’s free trams carry plenty of passengers. The roads remain jammed regardless.

Photo: Dreamstime.

Craig Turp-Balazs

Craig Turp-Balazs

Craig Turp-Balazs is head of insight and analysis at Reinvantage.

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Case study: Global technology company

1. The Client

A global technology company operating across EMEA, with a regional HQ in Istanbul. The company manages 20+ markets, handling everything from brand campaigns to strategic partnerships.

Role we worked with: The EMEA Head of Marketing (supported by two regional managers).

2. The Challenge

Despite strong products and a respected global brand, the regional team was struggling with:

  • Misaligned strategy across markets → campaigns executed with inconsistent narratives.
  • Slowed growth → lead generation plateaued despite increasing spend.
  • Internal friction → marketing, sales, and product teams disagreed on KPIs and priorities.

Traditional fixes (more meetings, more reporting) only created more noise.

3. The Sprint

We ran a 10-day Remote Reinvention Sprint with the regional HQ team.

  • Day 1–3: Intake → Reviewed decks, campaign data, and plans.
  • Day 4: Sprint Session (90 mins) → Breakthroughs:
    • Sales and marketing had different definitions of “qualified lead.”
    • 40% of spend was going into low-potential markets.
    • The team assumed the problem was lack of budget, but it was actually lack of alignment.
  • Day 5–10: Synthesis → Insights distilled into a Clarity Brief + Insight Canvas.
4. The Breakthrough

The Sprint uncovered that the issue wasn’t budget, but fragmentation.
Three sharp insights unlocked a way forward:

  1. Unified KPIs bridging marketing + sales.
  2. Market prioritisation → shifting budget to 5 high-potential markets.
  3. Simplified narrative → one EMEA core story, locally adaptable.
By just realigning resources and focus, the client could unlock an estimated £250,000 in efficiency gains within the next 12 months — far exceeding the Sprint’s value guarantee. The path to higher returns was already inside the business, hidden by misalignment.
5. From Sprint to Action (4 Pillars Applied)

With clarity secured, Reinvantage didn’t suggest “more projects.”

Instead, we used the Sprint findings to create laser-focused next steps — drawing only from the areas that would deliver the most impact:

  • Readiness → Alignment workshops for sales + marketing teams. New playbooks clarified “qualified lead” definitions and reduced internal disputes.
  • Foresight → A market-opportunity scan identified which 5 countries would deliver the highest ROI, removing the guesswork from allocation.
  • Growth → Guided the reallocation of €2M budget and designed a phased rollout strategy that protected risk while maximising return.
  • Positioning → Built a messaging framework balancing global consistency with local nuance, ensuring campaigns spoke with one clear voice.

Because the Sprint had stripped away noise, these actions weren’t generic consulting ideas — they were directly tied to the breakthroughs.

6. The Results
  • +28% increase in qualified leads across the region.
  • 30% faster campaign rollout due to streamlined approvals.
  • Budget efficiency gains → €2M redirected from low-return to high-potential markets.
  • Internal cohesion → marketing + sales now use a single shared dashboard.
The client came in believing they needed more budget.
The Sprint revealed that what they really needed was clarity and alignment.

With that clarity, the four pillars became not theory, but practical tools to deliver measurable impact.

The Sprint guaranteed at least £20,000 in value — but in this case, it helped unlock more than 10x that within six months.

Case study: Regional VC fund & accelerator

1. The Client

A regional venture capital fund and accelerator focused on early-stage tech start-ups in the Baltics and Central Europe.

The fund had raised a new round and was under pressure to deliver stronger returns while also building its reputation as the go-to platform for founders.

Role we worked with: Managing Partner, supported by the Head of Portfolio Development.

2. The Challenge

Despite a promising portfolio, results were uneven.

Key issues:

  • Scattered portfolio support → no consistent playbook for start-ups, every partner did things differently.
  • Weak differentiation → founders and co-investors saw the fund as “one of many” in the region.
  • Stretched team → too many small bets, not enough clarity on which companies to double down on.

The leadership team knew something was off, but disagreed on whether the issue was pipeline quality, market conditions, or internal capacity.

3. The Sprint

We ran a 10-day Remote Reinvention Sprint with the partners and portfolio team.

  • Day 1–3: Intake → Reviewed pitch decks, pipeline funnel data, and start-up performance reports.
  • Day 4: Sprint Session (90 mins) → Breakthroughs:
    • No shared definition of a “high-potential founder.”
    • Support resources were spread too thin across the portfolio.
    • The fund’s positioning was more reactive than proactive — it didn’t own a distinctive narrative in the market.
  • Day 5–10: Synthesis → Insights consolidated into a Clarity Brief + Insight Canvas.
4. The Breakthrough

The Sprint revealed that the challenge wasn’t pipeline quality — it was lack of focus and positioning.

Three core insights provided the turning point:

  1. Portfolio Prioritisation Framework → defined clear criteria for where to double down.
  2. Founder Success Playbook → standardised support model for portfolio companies.
  3. Differentiated Narrative → repositioned the fund as “the accelerator of reinvention-ready founders.”
These shifts alone gave the fund a path to add an estimated £2M+ in portfolio value over the following 18 months, by concentrating capital and resources where they could move the needle most.
5. From Sprint to Action (4 Pillars Applied)

With clarity from the Sprint, Reinvantage created a tailored support plan:

  • Readiness → Coached partners on using the new prioritisation framework and trained the team on deploying the Founder Success Playbook.
  • Foresight → Ran scenario analysis on regional tech trends, helping the fund anticipate where capital would flow next.
  • Growth → Guided resource reallocation across the portfolio and supported new co-investor pitches for top-performing start-ups.
  • Positioning → Crafted a sharper brand story for the fund, positioning it as the reinvention partner for globally minded founders.
6. The Results
  • 10 portfolio companies onboarded to the new Playbook → greater consistency of support.
  • Raised follow-on capital for 3 top start-ups with the new prioritisation framework.
  • +26% increase in inbound deal flow from founders citing the fund’s new positioning.
  • Stronger internal cohesion → partners aligned on where to focus resources.
The client thought the problem was pipeline quality.
The Sprint showed it was actually lack of clarity and focus inside the firm.

By applying the four pillars, Reinvantage helped turn scattered effort into concentrated value creation.

The Sprint guaranteed at least £20,000 in value; here it set the stage for multi-million-pound upside in portfolio growth.

Case study: International impact Organisation

1. The Client

A large international impact organisation focused on entrepreneurship and economic empowerment.
The organisation runs multi-country programmes across Eastern Europe and Central Asia, often in partnership with global donors and corporate sponsors.

Role we worked with: Senior Programme Director, responsible for regional coordination.

2. The Challenge

The organisation had launched a flagship regional initiative supporting women entrepreneurs, but the programme was underperforming.

Key issues:

  • Fragmented delivery → each country office interpreted the programme differently.
  • Donor frustration → reporting lacked consistency and clear impact metrics.
  • Lost momentum → staff energy was spent on administration rather than scaling success stories.

Traditional programme reviews had produced long reports, but no real alignment or action.

3. The Sprint

We ran a 10-day Remote Reinvention Sprint with the regional leadership team and representatives from two country offices.

  • Day 1–3: Intake → Reviewed donor reports, programme KPIs, and field feedback.
  • Day 4: Sprint Session (90 mins) → Breakthroughs:
    • Donors cared about quantifiable outcomes, but reporting focused on stories.
    • Staff were duplicating efforts across countries, wasting time and resources.
    • The initiative lacked a clear theory of change — everyone described its purpose differently.
  • Day 5–10: Synthesis → Insights distilled into a Clarity Brief + Insight Canvas.
4. The Breakthrough

The Sprint revealed that the issue wasn’t donor pressure or programme design — it was a lack of shared framework and alignment.

Three critical insights reshaped the path forward:

  1. One Unified Theory of Change → agreed narrative for why the programme exists.
  2. Core Impact Metrics → clear, comparable KPIs across all countries.
  3. Smart Resource Sharing → digital hub to stop duplication and accelerate knowledge flow.
By eliminating duplicated reporting and clarifying what success looks like, the client saw they could save the equivalent of £100,000 in staff time annually — while also unlocking stronger donor confidence and follow-on funding opportunities.
5. From Sprint to Action (4 Pillars Applied)

Armed with Sprint clarity, Reinvantage proposed a laser-focused support plan:

  • Readiness → Trained programme leads on using the new metrics and integrated them into existing workflows.
  • Foresight → Analysed donor trends and expectations, aligning the initiative with the next funding cycle.
  • Growth → Developed a funding case based on the new unified theory of change, securing higher renewal chances.
  • Positioning → Crafted a regional success narrative and storytelling toolkit, helping them showcase results consistently across markets.
6. The Results
  • 30% less time spent on reporting → freed capacity for programme delivery.
  • Donor satisfaction improved → positive feedback on the clarity of impact evidence.
  • Secured new funding commitment → one major donor increased their contribution by 20%.
  • Stronger internal morale → staff felt they were working with clarity, not chaos.
The client thought it needed better donor management.
The Sprint revealed it needed a shared foundation across its teams.

By anchoring on the four pillars, Reinvantage turned alignment into efficiency gains and fresh funding opportunities.

The Sprint guaranteed at least £20,000 in value; here it unlocked both six-figure savings and future-proofed funding.

Case study: National digital development agency

1. The Client

A national digital development agency tasked with driving the government’s digital transformation agenda, including e-services, citizen portals, and smart city pilots.

Role we worked with: Director of Digital Transformation, supported by IT and service delivery leads from three ministries.

2. The Challenge

The agency had strong political backing but faced hurdles in implementation.

Key issues:

  • Siloed projects → each ministry developed digital tools independently, leading to duplication.
  • Citizen frustration → services were digital in name, but still required multiple logins and offline steps.
  • Funding pressure → international partners demanded clearer impact in the short term.

The agency wanted to accelerate momentum but struggled to get alignment across ministries.

3. The Sprint

We ran a 14-day Immersive Reinvention Sprint with the agency’s leadership and digital focal points from three ministries.

  • Day 1–3: Intake → Reviewed strategy docs, donor reports, and citizen feedback data.
  • Day 4: Immersive Sprint Session (half-day) → Breakthroughs:
    • Each ministry had different definitions of “digital service.”
    • 20% of budget was going into overlapping pilot projects.
    • Citizens’ top frustrations were known — but not prioritised.
  • Day 5–14: Synthesis → Insights consolidated into a Clarity Brief + Insight Canvas.
4. The Breakthrough

The Sprint revealed that the biggest blocker wasn’t lack of funding, but lack of shared priorities.

Three practical insights stood out:

  1. One Definition of Digital Service → agreed across ministries.
  2. Quick-Win Prioritisation → focus on top 3 citizen pain points (ID renewal, business registration, healthcare booking).
  3. Shared Resource Map → pool budgets to eliminate duplication.
These changes alone allowed the agency to unlock £75,000 in immediate savings and deliver 2–3 visible improvements in the next quarter — meeting donor expectations and building citizen trust.
5. From Sprint to Action (4 Pillars Applied)

Based on the Sprint clarity, Reinvantage proposed a modest, targeted package of support:

  • Readiness → Facilitated inter-ministerial workshops to embed the “one digital service” definition.
  • Foresight → Analysed citizen feedback trends to shape the quick-win roadmap.
  • Growth → Supported the reallocation of funds to joint projects, reducing overlap.
  • Positioning → Crafted a communication plan highlighting early digital wins to donors and citizens.
6. The Results
  • 2 pilot services integrated into the central portal (ID renewal + healthcare booking).
  • Budget savings of £75,000 from eliminating overlapping projects.
  • Citizen satisfaction up modestly → call centre complaints on digital services dropped by 12%.
  • Donor confidence improved → short-term impact report received positive feedback.
The client thought it needed more funding and bigger projects.
The Sprint revealed it first needed clarity and alignment.

By applying the four pillars to a targeted scope, Reinvantage helped deliver visible results within a single quarter — proving progress to citizens and donors and laying the groundwork for deeper transformation.

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