Sweden could eliminate cash entirely by the end of 2025. Albania wants to follow suit by 2030. Hungary meanwhile is wiring the right to use physical currency into its constitution. Such is the contradiction at the heart of the drive towards fully digital payments: while economic forces push relentlessly towards cashless societies, political forces increasingly push back.

Counting the costs of cash

The economic case against physical currency is damning. Americans hold 1.3 trillion US dollars in cash—and average of roughly 4,000 US dollars per citizen—yet 78 per cent sits in 100 US dollars bills that exist primarily to grease underground economies.

The machinery of cash—printing, transporting, securing, processing—devours billions annually. Digital transactions eliminate these costs entirely.

Cashless systems promise to drag trillions of US dollars from the shadows. In Albania, the latest adherent to the cashless revolution, the informal economy accounts for 29 per cent to 50 per cent of GDP—a figure that would bankrupt most finance ministries’ revenue projections.

Digital payments create audit trails that make such parallel economies unsustainable. The potential windfall from formalising this activity could transform national budgets overnight.

Global digital payment values, projected to reach 33.5 trillion US dollars by 2030, up from 18.7 trillion US dollars in 2024, represent more than increased volume—they signal the elimination of friction costs that plague cash-based systems.

Between 2014 and 2024, digital wallet use grew ten-fold, accounting for 12 trillion US dollars in global spend. Even traditionally cash-heavy markets cannot resist: Nigeria’s cash share has plummeted from over 90 per cent in 2019 to 55 per cent today.

The Nordic laboratory

The battle for cashless supremacy is fiercest among Nordic nations, though different methodologies produce conflicting rankings. Norway leads on infrastructure readiness, with 96 per cent of citizens using online banking and only 32 ATMs per 100,000 people. Some 98 per cent of Norwegians own debit cards.

Sweden claims the crown for actual cashless usage, with physical currency representing less than five per cent of transactions and most banks refusing to handle cash deposits. The country’s Swish payment system, adopted by half the population, enables instant transfers using mobile phone numbers alone. Many businesses display ‘card only’ signs.

Finland rounds out the Nordic triumvirate, ranking second in Europe for card usage frequency and third in online banking adoption. The Bank of Finland predicts the country will be complete cashless by 2029, though 61 per cent of Finns don’t believe in the concept—a reminder that technological capability doesn’t always match social acceptance.

These Nordic pioneers benefit from high institutional trust, advanced digital infrastructure, and mobile payment innovations like Vipps MobilePay, now serving 11.5 million users across Norway, Finland, and Denmark. Yet even they face resistance: Norway’s parliament recently mandated that businesses maintain cash acceptance capabilities, acknowledging that complete cashless transitions create unacceptable systemic risks.

The fintech gold rush

The shift to cashless societies has spawned a fintech boom that dwarfs previous financial disruptions. Swedish fintech firms continue to attract serious funding (by European standards at least), not least buy-now, pay-later giant Klarna, now eyeing an IPO.

For start-ups, the opportunities presented by the cashless revolution extend far beyond established payment processors. Digital wallet companies like Apple Pay and Google Pay have exploded, while biometric authentication providers and cybersecurity firms feast on growing demand for secure digital transactions.

Fintech firms are building open banking solutions that bypass traditional card networks entirely, eliminating the fees that can cost merchants up to four per cent per transaction. Watch young people split a bill in a restaurant or cafe—chances are they will use an app such as Revolut to exchange money, not cash and certainly not traditional banking apps.

Indeed, traditional banks reluctant to reinvent their legacy systems arguably face a challenge every bit as existential as cash itself. Many fintech start-ups that began as transaction alternatives have become full banks, with companies such as Revolut or Wise now offering comprehensive banking services.

Established players must either innovate or risk losing customers to more agile competitors.

The constitutional counter-revolution

Not all governments are embracing the dash away from cash. A growing number of countries are enshrining cash rights in their constitutions, viewing digital-only payments as threats to sovereignty and freedom.

Hungary leads this counter-revolution. In April 2025, the country’s parliament passed the 15th Amendment to the Hungarian Constitution, making cash payment a fundamental right. The amendment mandates that businesses accept cash from consumers, with exceptions only for cross-border digital services and certain online transactions. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has argued that cash usage provides freedom by bypassing the banking system, and Hungary plans to install ATMs in all 3,155 settlements to support this constitutional guarantee.

Slovakia blazed this trail in June 2023, amending its constitution to guarantee the right to pay for goods and services in cash. The legislation was explicitly designed to resist any future EU mandate requiring digital euro adoption. MP Miloš Svrček declared it, “very important that there is a provision in the Constitution based on which we can defend ourselves against any orders from the outside.”

Both amendments reflect broader anxieties about EU digital currency plans. The European Central Bank criticised Slovakia’s constitutional amendment, arguing that monetary policy in the eurozone falls within ECB competence, not member state authority. This tension between national sovereignty and monetary union integration promises further constitutional battles.

Both Hungary and Slovakia’s constitutional moves ignores, however, the ECB’s own commitment to cash, which states that, “cash [should remain] widely available, accessible and accepted as both a means of payment and a store of value.”

Nevertheless, similar movements are emerging elsewhere. Over 500,000 Austrians signed a petition demanding a referendum on constitutional cash rights. Switzerland submitted a popular initiative in February 2023 calling for cash access to be constitutionally enshrined. These campaigns reflect growing unease about the pace of cashless transitions and their implications for personal freedom.

The inclusion imperative

Beyond the tired ‘sovereignty’ trope, however, critics do have a point. The cashless revolution, if not carefully regulated to ensure inclusivity, threatens to create new forms of exclusion that could cloud its economic benefits.

In America, 5.9 million households remain unbanked, concentrated among low-income and minority communities. Some 17 per cent of Britons feel they would struggle in a cashless society, with elderly and rural populations particularly vulnerable.

Less than half of Americans over 65 own smartphones, yet some cashless businesses now require app-based payments, creating double barriers for seniors. In rural areas, poor internet connectivity makes digital payments unreliable, while immigrant communities often lack the documentation needed for bank accounts.

Yet innovative solutions are emerging. Singapore’s government runs classes teaching seniors to use QR codes and digital payments, with programmes like ‘Seniors Go Digital’ providing hands-on training.

Mobile payment innovations show particular promise for inclusion. Kenya’s M-Pesa enables transactions without traditional bank accounts, while China’s Alipay offers offline payment solutions that work during network outages. Cash deposit machines and hybrid payment systems can bridge the gap between digital and traditional finance, maintaining choice while encouraging digital adoption.

Policy interventions prove crucial. Several American cities and states have banned cashless-only businesses, recognising that complete digital transitions risk excluding vulnerable populations. Massachusetts has prohibited cashless stores since 1978, while more recent legislation in San Francisco, Philadelphia, and New Jersey reflects growing concern about financial discrimination.

The privacy paradox

Digital payments create comprehensive surveillance networks that authoritarian regimes could only dream of. Every transaction generates data that governments and corporations can collect, analyse, and potentially weaponise. The European Central Bank warns that fully cashless economies could expose citizens to unprecedented privacy violations and economic control.

Cybersecurity risks multiply exponentially. 2024 saw over one billion records compromised in data breaches, a 72 per cent increase since 2021. System failures, cyberattacks, or technical glitches can render entire payment networks inoperable, leaving populations unable to conduct basic transactions. Without cash reserves, a cyber attack becomes an economic weapon of mass destruction.

The potential for financial surveillance extends beyond crime prevention. Insurance companies could adjust premiums based on food purchases tracked through digital payments. Governments could monitor political donations or restrict access to certain goods. Social credit systems like China’s demonstrate how payment data can become tools of social control, and even coercion.

However, these concerns must be weighed against cash’s own vulnerabilities. Physical currency facilitates money laundering, tax evasion, and criminal activity worth trillions annually. Digital transactions could help recoup the estimated 1.26 trillion US dollars stolen from developing nations through corruption, potentially lifting 1.4 billion people above the poverty line.

Ready reckoning

Despite constitutional resistance and legitimate privacy concerns, the momentum towards cashless societies appears unstoppable. Global cash usage stands at 80 per cent of 2019 levels and declines four per cent annually. Covid-19 proved a watershed moment: European cash transactions dropped from 72 per cent in 2019 to 59 per cent in 2022. That shift that appears permanent.

The transformation extends beyond consumer payments. Buy-now-pay-later services (such as Klarna) grew from 2.2 billion US dollars in 2014 to 342 billion US dollars in 2024, while cryptocurrency spending could double to 38 billion US dollars by 2030. These alternative payment methods gain traction precisely because they offer solutions that cash cannot match.

Back in would-be cashless Albania, PM Rama’s experiment faces enormous challenges—from ingrained mistrust of banks to inadequate digital infrastructure. His timeline may seem ambitious for a country where just 34 per cent of citizens trust banks and less than half have active accounts. Yet his 2030 target may prove realistic, not because Albania will pioneer the transition, but because the global cashless revolution is already well advanced.

Indeed, the question facing policymakers is not whether to embrace digital money, but whether they can manage its ascendancy while protecting the vulnerable and preserving essential freedoms.

Constitutional amendments may slow the process, but they cannot stop economic forces that make cash increasingly obsolete.

Photo: Dreamstime.